Trump says drivers may not see gas prices drop until after midterm elections
U.S. President Trump said Wednesday that the Iran war may not end until just after the November 3 midterm elections, and until then, high gas prices will not see significant relief, indicating little hope for the nearly seven-month conflict to cool down soon.
Trump told reporters: "Gas prices will fall sharply just after the election. It might take a little longer than the midterms."
Previously, Trump consistently predicted that the Middle East conflict would end quickly with Iran’s collapse; however, on Wednesday, he presented a new view, saying Iran's current strategy is to persist until the U.S. election.
Trump said Iran "urgently wants to influence the election so that we get a group of nice but weak people [in Congress], then let them go so they can have nuclear weapons," but "the war will end immediately after the election because they cannot last longer."
Trump also said the record high gas station prices will drop below $2 per gallon, "but only after the midterms."
U.S.-Iran tensions have escalated recently. Since September 5, U.S. forces have destroyed eight Iranian oil tankers in the Persian Gulf region in response to Iran's alleged missile attack attempts on U.S. warships; Trump said, "You will see more attacks on Iranian oil tankers."
According to AAA data, on Wednesday the national average gas price in the U.S. reached $4.22 per gallon, about $0.07 higher than Tuesday, and over $1.00 higher than a year ago; the average U.S. diesel price rose to $5.94 per gallon, about $0.04 higher than the previous day, nearly $2.25 higher than the same time last year.
Meanwhile, according to the latest short-term energy outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. diesel inventories are expected to fall to their lowest levels in more than 20 years this month.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration also raised its retail diesel price forecast for the fourth quarter of 2026 by 14% to $5.55 per gallon and increased the wholesale price forecast by 33% compared to a month ago.
Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy wrote in a social media post: "Diesel is about to make history. A national average of $6 per gallon, never seen before, will arrive in a few days, it is now inevitable."
The three major U.S. refining companies — Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Valero Energy (VLO), and Phillips 66 (PSX) — all hit record highs on Wednesday.
In regular trading, amid the escalation of U.S.-Iran hostilities, Brent crude oil futures surpassed $100 per barrel, U.S. crude rose above $96 per barrel; New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) October ultra-low sulfur diesel (HO1:COM) surged 5.1% to $4.801 per gallon, marking the second-highest closing price in history.
NYMEX October nearby crude oil (CL1:COM) rose 3.2% to $96.05 per barrel; November Brent crude (CO1:COM) rose 3.3% to $101.21 per barrel, both benchmarks reaching their highest settlement prices since May 22; however, NYMEX October nearby RBOB gasoline (XB1:COM) fell 1.3% to $3.2106 per gallon, ending a three-day gain streak.
U.S. natural gas futures declined, with the market's focus shifting from this week's inventory report to potentially cooler weather that may suppress demand; NYMEX October nearby contract dropped 3.2% to $2.822/MMBtu.
ETFs: (USO), (BNO), (UCO), (SCO), (USL), (DBO), (DRIP), (GUSH), (USOI), (UNG), (BOIL), (KOLD), (UNL), (FCG), (XLE)
Trump told reporters: "Gas prices will fall sharply just after the election. It might take a little longer than the midterms."
Previously, Trump consistently predicted that the Middle East conflict would end quickly with Iran’s collapse; however, on Wednesday, he presented a new view, saying Iran's current strategy is to persist until the U.S. election.
Trump said Iran "urgently wants to influence the election so that we get a group of nice but weak people [in Congress], then let them go so they can have nuclear weapons," but "the war will end immediately after the election because they cannot last longer."
Trump also said the record high gas station prices will drop below $2 per gallon, "but only after the midterms."
U.S.-Iran tensions have escalated recently. Since September 5, U.S. forces have destroyed eight Iranian oil tankers in the Persian Gulf region in response to Iran's alleged missile attack attempts on U.S. warships; Trump said, "You will see more attacks on Iranian oil tankers."
According to AAA data, on Wednesday the national average gas price in the U.S. reached $4.22 per gallon, about $0.07 higher than Tuesday, and over $1.00 higher than a year ago; the average U.S. diesel price rose to $5.94 per gallon, about $0.04 higher than the previous day, nearly $2.25 higher than the same time last year.
Meanwhile, according to the latest short-term energy outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. diesel inventories are expected to fall to their lowest levels in more than 20 years this month.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration also raised its retail diesel price forecast for the fourth quarter of 2026 by 14% to $5.55 per gallon and increased the wholesale price forecast by 33% compared to a month ago.
Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy wrote in a social media post: "Diesel is about to make history. A national average of $6 per gallon, never seen before, will arrive in a few days, it is now inevitable."
The three major U.S. refining companies — Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Valero Energy (VLO), and Phillips 66 (PSX) — all hit record highs on Wednesday.
In regular trading, amid the escalation of U.S.-Iran hostilities, Brent crude oil futures surpassed $100 per barrel, U.S. crude rose above $96 per barrel; New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) October ultra-low sulfur diesel (HO1:COM) surged 5.1% to $4.801 per gallon, marking the second-highest closing price in history.
NYMEX October nearby crude oil (CL1:COM) rose 3.2% to $96.05 per barrel; November Brent crude (CO1:COM) rose 3.3% to $101.21 per barrel, both benchmarks reaching their highest settlement prices since May 22; however, NYMEX October nearby RBOB gasoline (XB1:COM) fell 1.3% to $3.2106 per gallon, ending a three-day gain streak.
U.S. natural gas futures declined, with the market's focus shifting from this week's inventory report to potentially cooler weather that may suppress demand; NYMEX October nearby contract dropped 3.2% to $2.822/MMBtu.
ETFs: (USO), (BNO), (UCO), (SCO), (USL), (DBO), (DRIP), (GUSH), (USOI), (UNG), (BOIL), (KOLD), (UNL), (FCG), (XLE)